Brunner: Under No Circumstances Will I Run for SOS

In a letter to the chairs of county Democratic parties today, Jennifer Brunner unequivocally states that she will not seek re-election to the SOS position:

I want to make it clear that under no circumstances will I consider seeking re-election to the Secretary of State's position, or any other statewide or federal office, other than the open U.S. Senate seat of retiring Senator George Voinovich. I am pleased with the work that you and I have accomplished in improving elections in Ohio and the operations of the Secretary of State's office in less than three years, including protecting each Ohioan's social security number from public access and ensuring trust in Ohio's elections.

Modern & Russo's Leger De Main Re: Brunner

Leger De Main is a French phrase that means sleight of hand, an attempt at diversion. Jennifer Brunner supporters Modern Esquire and Tim Russo are hard at work practicing Leger De Main right now in an attempt to distract attention from Brunner's poor 1st Quarter fund raising totals, and the pressure she is feeling from national Democrats to improve her fundraising or leave the race.

Two national bloggers, Chris Cilliza of the Washington Post blog The Fix , and Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com have written recently that Brunner's lackluster fundraising total in Q1 means that unless her Q2 results show marked improvement, she'll feel the heat from national Democrats to leave the race. Especially since GOP front runner Rob Portman has over $3 million in the bank and a cleared primary field.

I don't know about you, but I really can't see Jennifer Brunner saying no to Rahm Emanuel if he calls her and asks her to step aside. Thus all the heat is on Brunner to at least match Fisher's Q2 fundraising totals or leave the race. The DSCC knows that Ohio is a key pickup opportunity that can serve either as a firewall against GOP gains elsewhere, or as a key piece in the puzzle of 60 senate votes. A bloody Democratic primary where the GOP candidate has a cleared field and can raise funds and define himself at will is their worst nightmare. 

From outside the vitrol that Modern and Russo have for Fisher for whatever reason, it would appear that the candidate who raised $1 million and has 20 years experience is more viable than one who raised $200,000 and has no legislative experience whatsover. So the heat is on Brunner to improve her fundraising totals or clear the field for Fisher. 

So, pay no attention to Modern & Russo's Leger De Main.

The Fix Summary of Ohio Senate Race

From the Friday Line at The Fix:

6. Ohio (R): Fundraising totals for the first three months of 2009 were a telling sign of strength in this open seat race. Former Rep. Rob Portman (R) delivered on the high expectations for his candidacy with $1.7 million raised and another $1.4 million transferred from his House account. Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) also crested the $1 million raised plateau -- far outdistancing Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner (D) who brought in just $200,000. If Brunner can't find a way to stay more competitive with Fisher, she is likely to face significant pressure from state and national Democrats to abandon her candidacy. Either way, a Fisher-Portman race is the most likely one right now, and that has all the makings of a great one. (Previous ranking: 6)

Brunner Makes FiveThirtyEight's Least Impressive Fundraising Totals List

From Nate Silver at FiveThirthyEight.com, Brunner makes his list of least impressive fundraising totals, meanwhile, Rob Portman makes the list of most impressive.

Least Impressive Fundraising Totals, Challenger Division

3. Jennifer Brunner, D-Ohio ($207,236). Brunner's totals significantly lagged those of Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher, who brought in $1,035,673 last quarter. With Democrats having good reason to fear Rob Portman's organizational strength, Brunner will be under substantial pressure to improve her fundraising or Buckeye State Democrats may lose their appetite for a competitive primary.

Most Impressive Fundraising Totals, Challenger Division

3. Rob Portman, R-Ohio ($1,704,501). Portman was expected to be a strong fundraiser so this is not surprising, but he is increasingly looking like a mild frontrunner in the race to replace George Voinovich, even if polling has showed him slightly behind the Democratic opposition.

Brunner Fundraising Numbers: Underwhelming, To Say the Least

I believe that Dave at Progress Ohio was the first to report on Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner's underwhelming first quarter fundraising numbers that were released today. Brunner raised about $200,000 in the first quarter 2009 for her Senate campaign, about one-fifth of Lee Fisher's $1 million haul, and about one-seventh of likely GOP challenger Rob Portman's $1.4 million that he actually raised instead of transferred from his congressional account.

There's lots of other stuff to blog about tonight, but let me just say that the Brunner supporters in the blogopshere have to be disappointed by this result. Fundraising is important no matter how Modern and Russo will try to spin this, and Brunner absolutely needs to make an all out push for 2Q money or this primary may be over before it begins.

Fisher, Brunner Hire Campaign Staffs

As the 2010 U.S. Senate campaign plunges headlong into the summer of 2009, it is becoming increasing apparent that neither Jennifer Brunner or Lee Fisher are going to back out of this primary. Brunner and Fisher have both hired extensive, experienced campaigners for this race. Fisher has announced he has raised over $1 million in the first quarter, meanwhile, Brunner has recruited Marilyn Brown to run for Secretary of State. Both of those facts indicate to me that they are both in this race for the long haul. I do not expect to see a "Valentine's Day Massacre" this time. Hope everyone is up for a long, nasty fight.

Friday Line: Ohio is "GOP's Biggest Success Story" Because of Dem Primary

From Chris Cilliza's Blog "The Fix" on Friday

6. Ohio (R): To date, the Ohio race may be Republicans' biggest success story this cycle. Former Rep. Rob Portman (R) got into the race early and managed to clear the primary field. Since then he has stayed below the radar, presumably to focus on fundraising in order to show a huge amount of money raised in his first quarter report. Democrats, meanwhile, seem headed to a primary between Lt. Gov.Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner -- among others -- that will deplete the eventual winner's resources and allow Portman to define himself in the absence of a Democratic opponent. Democratic strategists argue that the primary isn't a sure thing -- noting that a primary fight dissolved in 2006 in Ohio -- but we don't see either Fisher or Brunner blinking in the near future especially with polling that shows the primary to be a total jump ball. (Previous ranking: 4)

UFCW Endorses Brunner for Senate

Whoa! Ohio's largest private union, UFCW, endorses Jennifer Brunner for U.S. Senate instead of Lee Fisher. I had heard that Fisher wasn't the favorite of Ohio's unions, but I'm not sure why. Something that dates back to the 90s is all I heard.

In any case, congrats to the Brunner camp for the endorsement! And H/T Dave at Progress Ohio for the tip.

Is Paula Brooks Our SOS Candidate? If So, I'm Happy

So over at BSB David says that Franklin County Commissioner Paula Brooks may be the woman Jennifer Brunner is recruiting to replace her as Secretary of State. If this report is correct, it would make me feel much better about Brunner running for the U.S. Senate.

Paula Brooks was elected County Commissioner in 2004 after 8 years of serving on Upper Arlington City Council. That's right, Brooks was a Democrat on the city council of Columbus' iconic old-money, pretentious, tradtionally GOP subrub. Translation: she knows how to get GOP votes.

Her term on the Franklin County Board of Commissioners saw Democrats complete a take over of the board. Franklin County remains one of only a handful of Ohio governments to retain a AAA bond rating - the highest possible - which speaks to the counties' financial management under not only Brooks' leadership, but also under the leadership of now Congresswoman Mary Jo Kilroy.

In 2004, when I was just starting as a Democratic activist, Brooks gave me a view into how she approaches campaiging for office. "You have to earn each and every vote" I remember her telling me... and I can't think of a more perfect motto for a SOS candidate who will be protecting those votes once in office. 

Brunner: Fisher Can't Win

As David has ably pointed out over at BSB, The Licking County Pro-Active Citizens' Blog has some interesting quotes attributed to Secretary of State, and 2010 U.S. Senate candidate, Jennifer Brunner. 

Some Democrats, including Governor Ted Strickland, have indicated they'd prefer that Brunner stand down so that Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher can be the Democratic nominee without a contested primary.

"Take one for the team?," Brunner responded.  "Even if the other guy can't win?  I don't think that makes sense."

And as for party leaders who worry that her Senate ambitions put in jeopardy Democratic control of the remapping of state legislative districts after 2010, Brunner also thinks such fears are unfounded.

She's already at work recruiting a strong woman candidate to replace her as Secretary of State if she moves on to the U.S. Senate, Brunner said.

"I have no doubt we'll hold on to that seat," she said.

Couple of interesting points here. One, I don't see a basis for Brunner to say that Fisher can't win the seat. The polls from Quinnipiac bear out that Fisher and Brunner are in equal position against Rob Portman at this time. If anything, Fisher polls slightly better. 

Two, I think Brunner owes it to Ohio Democrats everywhere to seek the best possible candidate for SOS, no matter their gender, since her candidacy does put at risk Democratic control of the apportionment board. Obviously, Brunner would have the advantage of incumbency if she were to run for SOS in 2010, and her replacement won't have that luxury in a race against Slick Jonny Husted.

Third, I understand things are heating up quickly, but I had hoped we could wait a little longer before lobbing pot shots. This primary has already caused a major dislocation in Ohio's progressive blogosphere, and we don't need it to spread to our party structure at a time when we are still trying to heal from the Clinton-Obama primary of a year ago (yes, it was only one year ago),

NOW GOP Wants Redistricting Reform

After doing nothing during 16 years of complete control over Ohio's state government, Ohio GOP leaders now are all about the cause of redistricting reform. Why? Do you think maybe it might have a little something to do with the fact that Democratic control of the apportionment board that will redraw our state legislative districts after the 2010 census is a distinct possiblity?

GOP State Senators "Slick Jonny" Husted and Kevin Coughlin have introduced their own redistricting reform measures. Since Ohio's current apportionment board makeup is written into our state constitution, any proposal to reform or change the makeup of the apportionment board would require a vote at the ballot box in either November 2009 or 2010.

However, I just can't help but ask: where were these reform proposals in 1999, when the GOP was assured of controlling the apprtionmnet board? If redistricting reform was of such an importance to you, why didn't you support the Reform Ohio Now proposals back in 2005? 

I love the smell of hypocrisy in the morning. Anyone who thinks these proposals are anything except ways to gear up for a run for Secretary of State, and a run against Jennifer Brunner's work in that office, is crazy.