Wednesday, August 02, 2006

New Rasmussen Poll Results

The Rasmussen poll released its July polling information on Ohio's two key statewide races last week while I was on vacation. In the gubenatorial race, Rasmussen pegs Democrat Ted Strickland's lead over Republican J. Kenneth Blackwell at 11 points, with 50% of likely voters supporting Stirckland, 39% supporting Blackwell and the remaining 11% undecided. This poll shows Strickland's advantage as two points lower than the June poll, which in turn showed an advantage two points lower than the May poll. However, the margin of error of the poll is plus or minus 4.5 points, so these results are still within the margin of error of the May poll. Rasmussen's three month rolling average, which they say helps to filter out statistical noise, shows no change in the last four months.

No change, however, hardly describes the U.S. Senate race between Democrat Sherrod Brown and incumbent Republican Mike DeWine. For the fourth month in a row, there has been a lead change, with the July poll showing Brown with a razor-thin 2 point lead over DeWine. The three month rolling average shows a race that started out with an advantage to the incumbent, but has steadily narrowed to a statistical tie. Both campaigns have begun airing TV ads seeking an advantage in this tight race. Other Republican senate incumbents are in trouble in Missouri, Rhode Island, Montana, and Pennsylvania.

Other interesting facts: The poll put President Bush's approval rating in Ohio at 43%, with 55% disapproval. Governor Taft, has climbed out of the teens, but still only gains support from a putrid 20% of respondents with 77% disapproval.