So much for GOP pickup opportunities...

If you would care to jump in the way-back machine with me, and think back to early January or February of this year. You'll recall that when U.S. Reps Sherrod Brown and Ted Strickland announced they would abandon their congressional seats to run for the U.S. Senate and Governor seats, respectively, that were up for election this year, the GOP proclaimed that they had an excellent opportunity to pick up both Congressional seats. They recruited State Rep. Chuck Blasdel, the house speaker pro tem, to run for Strickland's seat in the 6th District, and Lorain Mayor Craig Foltin, the Republican mayor of a heavily Democratic city, to run for Brown's seat in the 13th.

However, the political headwinds faced by the GOP this year due to the war in Iraq, high gas prices, bungled Katrina response, etc., have forced the National Republican Campaign Committee to shift their money to defending seats held by GOP incumbents instead of picking up Democrat-held seats. This has allowed State Sen. Charlie Wilson, the Democratic nominee in the 6th district, and former State Rep. Betty Sutton in the 13th, to build solid leads. Reflecting this, CQPolitics.com changed its rating on both races to its somewhat-competitive Democrat Favored category. The 6th district had been rated in CQ's ultra-competitive No Clear Favorite category, while the 13th district had been in CQ's very competitive Leans Democratic category.

CQ today also changed the rating on the 2nd Congressional District to Republican Favored from Safe Republican, due to the NRCC investing money in attack pieces in defense of U.S. Rep Jean Schmidt, who insulted U.S. Rep John Murtha (D-PA) a U.S. Marine veteran of the Vietnam war, on the floor of the House of Representatives. Murtha is scheduled to appear at a fundraiser in support of Schmidt's Democratic opponent, Victoria Wulsin, and will also be featured in Wulsin's first TV advertisement.

Now, its time for CQ to get its pencils out and change its rating on Ohio's 12th Congressional District race. Democratic nominee Bob Shamansky is a wealthy real estate investor who is self-funding his campaign. His first TV ad featured former U.S. Senator John Glenn giving Shamansky his endorsement, and the Republican incumbent, Pat Tiberi, was scared enough to crank out an attack ad criticizing the 79-year-old for owning three houses, only one of which is in the district. Despite Tiberi's lock on the district in the past, it was very competitive in the 2004 Presidential race, with a 51-49 Bush/Kerry split, and could be in play this year. We will have to see. As a resident of the 12th, I know I plan on voting for Bob Shamansky, and I have to think lots of other Columbus-ites are going to consider it.

How to Beat "Cut and Run"

As I have been very busy with actual campaign events, I have not had much time to update my blog. Instead, please read Jonathan Alter's excellent column, "How to beat cut and run" which you can see by following the link below:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/13531829/site/newsweek/

Oh, We Can Only Wish....

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14753927/site/newsweek/

CQ rating change portends trouble for GOP in Ohio

Congressional Quarterly's elections forecast has been updated with new ratings on statewide elections in Ohio, and the new ratings reflect the good chances Democrats have to win a statewide office for the first time since 1992 when Senator John Glenn was re-elected to his last term. In the race for Ohio governor, CQ has changed its rating from "No clear favorite" to "Leans Democratic", reflecting the big leads in polling and cash that Democrat Ted Strickland has over Republican J. Kenneth Blackwell. CQ has also changed its rating on Ohio's Senate race to "No clear favorite" from "Leans Republican" reflecting the very close contest between two-term Republican incumbent Mike DeWine and Democratic challenger Sherrod Brown. What a change from two years ago when Republican incumbent Senator George Voinovich defeated his Democratic challenger, State Senator Eric Fingerhut, by 30 percentage points, in the process carrying every single county in Ohio.

Census Bureau report shows Bush economic policies not working

Yesterdays' report from the U.S. Census Bureau leaves little doubt that, despite Republican dismissal of such concerns as "class warfare", President Bush's economic policies are mainly benefitting the wealthiest of Americans, while leaving the middle class squeezed and the lower class slipping into deep poverty.

Median Real Household Income increased a paltry 1.1 percent, the first increase since President Bush took office, owing mainly to older Americans whose incomes increased due to investments and Social Security benefits. Meanwhile, the under-65 crowd saw yet another decrease in their median wages, as inflation continues to outstrip wage increases for most working Americans. Median income for under-65 Americans is now $2,000 lower than it was four years ago, during the 2001 recession, after adjusting for inflation.

The poverty rate, at 12.6 percent, and number of uninsured Americans, at 46.6 million, are also worse then they were during the 2001 recession. These numbers show that robust economic growth does not by itself help all Americans if there are not government policies in place to ensure that the benefits of such growth are widely distrubited. Economic growth does little good if the benefits of it mainly accrue to the wealthy and to big businesses.

Of course, since the Republicans are vassals of the wealthy and big business, benefits will continue to accure to them as long as they are in power. The question is, how long will it take Americans to figure out that the Republicans are using "wedge issues" such as abortion and gay marriage to distract them while they do the bidding of the wealthy and powerful?

Rasmussen: Strickland ahead by 25

The Rasmussen poll released the results of its statewide polling for Ohio's governor and senator races on August 27th, and the results do not bode well for the Blackwell campaign. According to the poll, Congressman Strickland has increased his lead in the gubenatorial race to 25 points. This tracks with a SurveyUSA poll which shows Strickland's lead at 22 points, and with the Columbus Dispatch poll which showed Strickland with a 20 point lead. According to the Rasmussen results, 57% of likely voters contacted by the survey stated they plan to vote for Congressman Strickland, while 32% state they plan to vote for Secretary Blackwell, with the remaining 11% either supporting third-party candidates or undecided. The three month rolling average, which is supposed to eliminate statistical noise, has had Strickland with a 13-16 point lead for the last five months.

Meanwhile, the more competitive race between Congressman Sherrod Brown and incumbent Senator Mike DeWine continues to be very close. The latest Rasmussen result had Brown with a razor thin 3 point lead, as compared to the 2 point lead from last month's poll. The three month rolling average now shows the race as a tie, and has shown no candidate with a lead larger than two points for the last four months. This is truly going to be a bruising battle to the finish, with both candidates already trotting out attack ads. With the coming of Labor Day and the two-month mark til Election Day, expect the attacks to get more and more vicious.

Sensationalism surrounding Lieberman Loss

It has been nine days since 52% of the Democratic primary voters in the Constitution State ignored the advice of this blogger and chose Ned Lamont, not three-term Democratic incumbent Joe Lieberman, as the Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate from Connecticut. The main issue in the revolt, as reported elsewhere, is Sen. Lieberman's unwavering support for the Iraq War. Response to Lieberman's primary defeat by right-wingers who toe the Karl Rove line was unanimous and quite swift. The Wall Street Journal claimed that Lamont's primary win foretold of a "new" Democratic party dominated by the liberal elite instead of the working class, based on the primary results that Lamont carried areas of Connecitcut won by Richard Nixon in 1960, whereas Lieberman carried areas of the state won by John F. Kennedy that year. Conservative columnist Cal Thomas wrote that Lieberman was befallen by "Taliban Democrats" who had started a political jihad against those who failed to conform to their world view. Ken Mehlman, George Bush, and Dick Cheney also joined in the act.

While I do not defend the defeat of Lieberman, as you can tell from my previous blog posting on this topic, I must say I am appaled by this reporting, which is nothing short of sensationalistic, for two reasons. First, any college student who has successfuly passed Political Science 101 can tell you that the people who turn out for primary elections are the hard-core true believers. The pragmatic centrists or even party insiders do not have much of a voice when it comes to primary elections. Primaries are about placating the hard-core left or right wingers, and that makes them a lousy time to be a centrist. As the true believers become even more hard-core due to the country's polarization, you can expect more centrists to be dusted in primary elections.

Case in point, and this leads me to my second point, in Michigan's 7th Congressional District, Republican Congressman Joe Schwarz was ousted by primary voters on the same day as Lieberman. Schwarz is a moderate Republican who was targeted for defeat by the ultra-Conservative "Club for Growth." The "Club" largerly built and funded Mr. Schwarz' opponent, who basically spent the entire campaign insisting that Congressman Schwarz, a long-time State Senator, was not conservative enough.

To extend Mr. Cal Thomas' metaphor, you might call the Club for Growth the "Taliban Republicans" who have issued a jihad against moderates. In fact, since the "Club" was founded in 1999, its stated goal has been to go "RINO" hunting, with RINO standing for Republican in Name Only. To my knowledge, the Democratic Party has no permanent organization within it dedicated to taking down moderates that is comparable to the "Club for Growth."

Which makes it hypocritical in the extreme for Bush, Cheney, Mehlman, Thomas, the WSJ, and all other Republicans, to be harping on Lieberman's primary loss. But of course a little hypocrisy has never stopped Republicans from following Karl Rove's playbook in the past, so it is sadly unsurprising that it didn't stop them this time, either.

Can you spell Irony?

During the 2002 redistricting process, the Republican-led Ohio Legislature drew the 6th Congressional District, which extends from the subrubs of Youngstown south along the OH/PA border and Ohio River to Portsmouth at the state's very southern tip, for a specific purpose. They figured that incumbent Democrat Ted Strickland would win the seat, but that if he left office for any reason the Republicans would be able to pick it up. So last year when Congressman Strickland was contemplating whether to throw his hat in the race for governor, and face a potential primary fight against Columbus Mayor Micheal Coleman and State Sen. Eric Fingerhut (D-Shaker Heights), the Republicans snuck a "sole loser" bill into a budget bill that passed. The "sore loser" provision basically prohibited anyone who lost a primary for one office from running for another office in that same year. Thus, sending a message to Congressman Strickland: don't expect to try and run again for your congressional seat if you enter the Democratic primary for Governor and lose.

Of course, Mayor Coleman and Senator Fingerhut dropped out of the Democratic primary for Governor, clearing the way for Strickland to win the Democratic nomination. However, the sore loser provision remained on the books, and now has ensnared State Sen. Joy Padgett (R-Coshocton). With Bob Ney declining to run for re-election in the face of the Jack Abramoff scandal, State Sen. Padgett was anointed by Ney and House Majority Leader John Boehner to run for the seat. The problem is, Padgett was the Lt. Governor candidate on Jim Petro's primary ticket, and since that ticket lost, the "sore loser" provision applies to Padgett.

Here we have a clear example of unintended consequences. A bill aimed at making Congressman Strickland think twice before stepping into the Governor's race has instead tripped up the most logical candidate to keep Ohio's 18th Congressional seat in Republican hands. Can you spell I-r-o-n-y?

New Rasmussen Poll Results

The Rasmussen poll released its July polling information on Ohio's two key statewide races last week while I was on vacation. In the gubenatorial race, Rasmussen pegs Democrat Ted Strickland's lead over Republican J. Kenneth Blackwell at 11 points, with 50% of likely voters supporting Stirckland, 39% supporting Blackwell and the remaining 11% undecided. This poll shows Strickland's advantage as two points lower than the June poll, which in turn showed an advantage two points lower than the May poll. However, the margin of error of the poll is plus or minus 4.5 points, so these results are still within the margin of error of the May poll. Rasmussen's three month rolling average, which they say helps to filter out statistical noise, shows no change in the last four months.

No change, however, hardly describes the U.S. Senate race between Democrat Sherrod Brown and incumbent Republican Mike DeWine. For the fourth month in a row, there has been a lead change, with the July poll showing Brown with a razor-thin 2 point lead over DeWine. The three month rolling average shows a race that started out with an advantage to the incumbent, but has steadily narrowed to a statistical tie. Both campaigns have begun airing TV ads seeking an advantage in this tight race. Other Republican senate incumbents are in trouble in Missouri, Rhode Island, Montana, and Pennsylvania.

Other interesting facts: The poll put President Bush's approval rating in Ohio at 43%, with 55% disapproval. Governor Taft, has climbed out of the teens, but still only gains support from a putrid 20% of respondents with 77% disapproval.

Dispatch Poll: Strickland ahead by 20

A statewide poll of 1,654 registered voters conducted by the Columbus Dispatch from July 11-20 showed that 47% of respondents planned to vote for Democratic gubenatorial nominee Ted Strickland, 27% planned to vote for Republican nominee Ken Blackwell, with the remaining 24% undecided.

The same poll also showed 45% of repondents planning to vote for Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Sherrod Brown, while 37% plan to vote for Republican incumbent Mike DeWine, and the remaining 17% are undecided.

Interesting facts uncovered by the survey:

• Only 53% of those who report voting for George W. Bush in 2004 plan to vote for Blackwell, whereas 66% plan to vote for Mike DeWine. Less than half of those who report voting for Bob Taft in 2002 plan to vote for Blackwell.
• Strickland carries every age group except for 18-24 where they are tied. Self-described independents favor Strickland by 33 points, however 38 % of these voters remain undecided.
• Brown is losing the 18-24 and 25-34 age groups to DeWine, but carries all other age groups. Self-described independents favor Brown by 15 points, however 32% of these voters remain undecided.

Meanwhile, according to the Rasmussen poll, President Bush's approval rating, which had crept back to 45% amidst good news out of Iraq, plunged 8 points to 37% in the wake of his veto of legislation authorizing federal funding for stem cell research. The percentage who stongly disapprove of Bush's performance has now risen to 42%.