Sunday, March 05, 2006

5 State Senate seats to win in 2006

Ohio's State Senate is comprised of 33 members, who are elected to 4-year terms. Senators in even-numbered districts are elected in the presidential election years, while those in odd-numbered districts are elected in the "mid-term" gubenatorial election years. Ohio's State Senate is currently controlled 22-11 by the Republicans, which when you consider Ohio's 51-49 split in the 2004 presidential Election, is obviously due to careful gerrymandering. Even so, there are still 5 seats that are ripe for a Democratic pickup in 2006. They are:

1. The 3rd State Senate District. The 3rd District includes roughly the northern and eastern third of Franklin County. Franklin County is in the midst of a decade-long shift toward the blue side of the ledger. In 2004, this district mirrored the statewide 51-49 Bush v. Kerry split and therefore it should provide a good opportunity for a pick up. The Democratic candidate in this district, Emily Krieder, put together an excellent organization early on in the race, and her moderate stance on abortion should help her with the suburban churchgoers in this district. The incumbent Republican, David Goodman, failed in his 2004 bid to unseat Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy.

2. The 13th State Senate District. The 13th district is made up of all of Lorain and Huron counties as well as the eastern half of Seneca county. The seat is currently held by Republican Jeffrey Armbruster, who is prohibited by term limits from running for re-election. In 2002, he was re-elected by less than 500 votes. Lorain County voted for John Kerry by almost 17,000 votes, and so this district presents an excellent chance for a pick-up by the Democratic candidate, Sue Morano.

3. The 17th State Senate District. The 17th district is made up of a wide swath of south-central Ohio, including all or part of 10 counties. The district is currently represented by Republican John Carey, who was re-elected in 2002 by a lackluster 54-46 margin of victory. Democratic candidate April Howland has never run for public office before and filed for the seat at the deadline, but if she can build an organization quickly she could potentially pull off an upset win.

4. The 27th State Senate District. The 27th district lies entirely within Democratic-leaning Summit County (where I grew up!), and although it is gerrymandered to be as much of a Republican seat as possible, the incumbent Republican senator Kevin Coughlin was elected in 2002 by less than a 5,000 vote margin of victory. There is a three-way Democratic primary in the district between Joshua Franchetti, Kevin Griffith, and Judy Hanna.

5. The 29th State Senate District. The 29th district is comprised of almost all of Stark County, except for the extreme eastern edge. Although incumbent Republican J. Kirk Schuring was elected in 2002 by a healthy margin, Stark County voted for John Kerry by a small but significant margin of victory, and has recently dealt with some bad economic news. Schuring will be challenged by Canton City Council member Thomas West.

1 comment:

julio said...

Just to clear something up for you, John Carey beat a 15+ year incumbent in 2002, Mike Shoemaker. Shoemaker's dad was former Lt. Gov. Mryl Shoemaker. NOBDODY thought Carey was going to win.