Wednesday, October 18, 2006

More CQ Rating Changes in Ohio

Can you hear the cresting blue wave? It's going to hit in less than three weeks., the website of the highly respected political publication Congressional Quarterly, has changed its rating on a number of races in Ohio. The changes are summarized below:

Ohio Governor : Now rated Democrat Favored (from Leans Democratic)

Congressman Ted Strickland's election to Ohio's top post is now seen as highly likely by CQ's staff. A slew of recent independent polls shows Ted Strickland maintaining a double-digit lead, including the University of Cincinnati's Ohio Poll, which pegs Strickland to an 14 point lead. The Ohio Poll is the one outlier that had still shown Ken Blackwell within striking distance of Strickland, so with this information as well as the short time left until the election, CQ has made the ratings change. The "Democrat Favored" rating indicates that the race is still somewhat competitve, but the Democratic candidate is clearly in command.

Ohio Senate: Now rated Leans Democratic (from No Clear Favorite)

With indepedent polls from SurveyUSA, Qunnipiac University as well as the Ohio Poll showing Congressman Sherrod Brown putting further distance between himself and Republican incumbent Sen. Mike DeWine, CQ has changed its rating on Ohio's Senate race to Leans Democratic. This rating indicates that while the race is still highly competitive, the Democratic candidate does appear to have the advantage. This makes Sen. DeWine the third Republican senator to be considered an underdog for re-election this year. He joins Pennsylvania Republican Sen. Rick Santorum and Rhode Island Sen. Lincoln Chafee in that category.

Ohio 2: Now rated Leans Republican (from Republican Favored)

A bedrock Republican conservative district that gave President Bush 64% of the vote in 2004, the 2nd, based in the suburbs of Cincinnati, is the last place you would look for a highly competitive House race. However, the unpopularity of incumbent Rep. Jean Schmidt, plus the credible challenge by Democrat Victoria Wulsin, has caused CQ to place this race in its highly competitive Leans Republican category. A recent SurveyUSA poll done on behalf of WCPO-TV in Cincinnati placed Wulsin within 8 points of Schmidt (48% to 40%)

Ohio 12: Now rated Republican Favored (from Safe Republican)

The Columbus-based 12th is no party's stronghold: President Bush and Sen. John Kerry split the district's presidental vote 51-49 in 2004. However, three term Republican Rep. Pat Tiberi has coasted to re-election behind inexperienced challengers in the last two elections. However, he is now facing a credible challenge from Democratic former Rep. Bob Shamansky, who at age 79 is willing to dip into his consider personal wealth to get his former seat back (He was elected in 1980 but defeated in 1982). As a result, CQ's ratings change indicates this race is now at least somewhat competitive, although Tiberi is still considered a heavy favorite to be re-elected.

Ohio 15: Now rated No Clear Favorite (from Leans Republican)

Well folks, "The Race" is now even more so. The only member of the House Republican leadership to face a competitive re-election bid, Rep. Deborah Pryce is now running neck-and-neck with her Democratic challenger, Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy, in the Columbus-based 15th District. The 15th District split its Presidental vote 50-50 in 2004, and this race is very winnable for both candidates. Reflecting the extremely competitive nature of this race, CQ has changed its rating to No Clear Favorite from Leans Republican. Both candidates have drawn fundraising visits from top party leaders, and the NRCC and DCCC continue to spend heavily on this race. This one will likely go down to the wire.

1 comment:

NoFanOfJean said...

Football fans, Jean Schmidt should be penalized 15 years for un-Portmanlike conduct. Un-Portmanlike conduct includes but is not limited to:

Calling Murtha a coward (Portman did not resort to name calling)

Lying on your resume since 1989


Claiming false endorsements

Spreading lies about your opponents

Ducking debates

Being all talk and no action with the styrene leak

Coordinating a smear campaign against your opponent with the Enquirer

Advocating doing business with Fidel Castro, then taking money from anti-Castro interests

Discussing your newlywed daughter’s sex life in a public forum

Just to name a few things....