Who didn't get the memo?

Sitting down to watch President Bush's 7th State of the Union address to members of the 110th U.S. Congress and other assorted guests, the change in atmosphere was palpable. It began when President Bush began by shaking the hand of new Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA). It continued when the President finally acknowledged the reality of global warming, and put forth his initative to reduce U.S. gasoline consumption by 20% in the next ten years. It continued further when the President awoke to the danger posed by our continuing reliance on debt to finance our government's operations, when he proposed balancing the federal budget by 2012.

But then President Bush began to discuss the situation in Iraq, and it was almost as though he had missed a memo and gone back to the old G.W. Bush. He voiced the same old tired justifications about the war on terror and 9/11. And in the end, he persuaded no one, absolutely no one, to support his new policy of escalating the situation in Iraq. Call it a "surge," call it the "McCain Doctrine" as dailykos has done, whatever sounds good, but in the battle between James Baker and Dick Cheney for the President's ear, its clear that Cheney won. The Baker-Hamilton report has clearly been discarded.

But then, in the Democratic response, we saw Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA) throw down the gauntlet. A Democrat turned Republican turned Democrat, I was skeptical of Tim Russert's assertion that Webb was a Democrat "to his bones," until I heard him speak. Sen. Webb was articulate, intelligent, and, in a speech he wrote himself, managed to overshadow in nine minutes President Bush's hour-long oratory.

And, just in case President Bush didn't get the memo, he was a stark reminder of how much things have changed in Washington D.C.

Welcome to the New World Order

My apologies for a lack of bloggage over the holidays. I'd just like to welcome all my readers to the New World Order. One week ago, our newly elected Democratic leaders were sworn into office. Congratulations to Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, Treasurer of State Richard Cordray, and Attorney General Marc Dann. Also sworn into office were the members of the 127th Ohio General Assembly, which includes 7 Democrats in previously Republican held state house seats. This narrows the Republican advantage to 53-46 (previously, it has been 60-39) in that body. The State Senate, meanwhile, still has an overwhelming (21-12) Republican advantage.

Gov. Strickland served notice that a new sheriff was in town when he vetoed Senate Bill 117, which was, in the words of Plain Dealer columnist Thomas Suddes, a "sloppy GOP kiss bestowed on clients of Ohio's big-business law firms." Outgoing Gov. Taft could have prevented this by signing or vetoing the bill, instead he did neither, leaving the door open for Gov. Strickland to veto the bill on his first day in office. A new sheriff is in town, and its going to be fun to watch him clean house.

Memo to Ohioans: Quit Dying, Already!

Well, the U.S. Census Bureau came out today with its state-by-state population estimates for the U.S. as of July 1, 2006. The State of Ohio experienced an anemic growth rate of approximately 0.1 percent, which is consistent with the State's rate of growth since the 2000 census. While Ohio families produced a healthy share of babies this year, and we had a large number of immigrants move to the state, Ohio's growth was negatively impacted by an estimated 107,000 deaths, as well as approximately 48,000 Ohioans who left the state to seek a brighter future.

Ohioans will continue to leave the state until we can rebuild our educational institutions, improve our infrastructure, rebuild our tax system, and make other necessary changes that will create jobs here. In the meantime, Ohio will continue to fall behind other state's population growth rate, costing us congressional seats and electoral votes. So, Memo to Ohioans: Would you quit dying already!?

What happened in 2006?

Many column inches have been devoted to the outcome of 2006 mid-term elections by columnists more talented than I. However, I think it is worth re-iterating the key issue of these elections.

If you looked at a political map of 100 years ago, you'd notice that the "Solid South" was solidly Democratic, while New England and the Northeast was a Republican stronghold. This paradigm began to shift with 1948, when Strom Thurmond ran for President as a "Dixiecrat," and began shifting in earnest with Richard Nixon's 1968 "Southern Strategy" which ran contrary to the advice of then New York Governor Nelson Rockefeller, in creating a much more conservative, neo-racist Republican party to appeal to the white Southern voter put off by the Democrat's insistence on civil rights and voting rights for blacks. While the South started voting for Republican presidential candidates in the 60s and 70s, a whole generation of Southern Democrats in congress and the Senate held onto their seats by separating themselves from the national party and taking centrist positions. This strategy proved effective until 1994, when the "Republican Revolution" ousted a whole generation of Southern Democrats.

Meanwhile, in the Northeast, the same shift was happening in the opposite direction. While the Northeast began voting for Democratic presidential candidates, a generation of Yankee Republicans hung onto their seats by taking a centrist tack, exhibiting the socially liberal but fiscally conservative views that had defined New England Republicanism for generations.

However, the 2006 election marked the turning point where these candidates attachment to an extremely disliked national Republican party caused them to lose. When the 110th Congress is seated, 21 of the 22 House members from New England (Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine) will be Democrats. The Democratic Party has taken complete control of the New Hampshire state government for the first time since 1877. Democrats now control all statewide offices in New York for the first time since 1938.

The 2006 elections mark the end of a historical shift. The GOP is now the party of Dixie, while the Democrats are now the part of the Northeast and Midwest.

My, how far we've come.

As the news media and blogosphere plunge headlong into the emerging 2008 Presidential race, with stories on who will and who won't throw their hat into the campaign ring, it is worth taking a step back and taking stock of just how far Ohio Democrats came in the 2006 election cycle. As the frequent saying goes, you can't really know where you are without knowing how you got there.

Before November 7th, 2006, it had been 14 years since a Democrat was elected to a statewide office in Ohio. That last victory was in 1992, when the legendary John Glenn was re-elected to his fourth and final term representing Ohio in the U.S. Senate. 1994 was a bad year for Democrats nationally, but in Ohio it was a disaster, as it marked the complete desolution of decades of control of state government. In 1994, Republicans won every single statewide office, led by incumbent Gov. George Voinvoich's absolute destruction of State Sen. Rob Burch in the Governor's race. Also, the U.S. Senate seat of retiring Democratic Sen. Howard Metzenbaum was lost to then-Lt. Gov. Mike DeWine, as the party had failed to groom a replacement, and ended up running Joel Hyatt against DeWine, his main qualification being that he was Metzenbaum's son-in-law. Republicans also took control of both houses of the General Assembly for the first time in decades.

1996 saw some reprieve as President Bill Clinton handily won the state as part of his successful campaign for re-election, but 1998 was another bad year. Although the Democratic ticket of former Attorney General Lee Fisher and then-City Councilman Mike Coleman kept it respectable at the top of the ticket, the party failed to field a strong candidate for U.S. Senate. Former Cuyahoga County Commissioner Mary Boyle stood not the slightest chance against popular two-term Gov. George Voinovich, who claimed the U.S. Senate seat of the retiring Sen. Glenn. In eight years, Ohio had gone from a Democratic governor and two Democratic senators to a Republican Governor and two Republican senators. 1998 also saw the Republicans once again sweep all other statewide offices (Secretary of State, Treasurer of State, Auditor of State, and Attorney General).

2000 was another terrible year. To oppose incumbent Sen. Mike DeWine, the Democrats nominated Ted Celeste, whose sole political asset was that he is the brother of former two-term Democratic Gov. Richard Celeste (2006 saw Ted Celeste win a State Rep seat, if that gives you any frame of reference). DeWine cruised to re-election. Meanwhile, Vice President Al Gore abandoned Ohio and its then-21 electoral votes to George W. Bush.

2002 was rock bottom. Not only did the Republicans sweep all statewide offices for the third election in a row, they also consolidated their control over Ohio's legislators thanks to legistlative districts they redrew after the 2000 census. Ohio's congressional delegation was now controlled 12-6 by the Republicans, while they also controlled the Ohio House 62-37, and the Ohio Senate, 22-11. After this humbling defeat, Ohio Democratic Pary chair David Leland was finally forced out, having served eight years despite not seeing a single Democrat elected to a statewide office during his tenure.

2004 saw the worm start to turn a little bit. The Kerry/Edwards camp very nearly carried the state. I am convinced that had their not been a constitutional amendment on the ballot regarding gay marriage to drive Republican turnout to the polls, that Kerry would have won. However, Sen. George Voinovich was easily re-elected, carrying all 88 counties against State Sen. Eric Fingerhut.

So, considering this recent history, it is quite an accomplishment to be able to say that we have a Democratic governor, Ted Strickland. A Democratic Secretary of State, Jennifer Brunner. A Democratic Treasurer of State, Richard Cordray. A Democratic Attorney General, Marc Dann. And, elected to Howard Metzenbaum's old seat in the U.S. Senate, Democratic congressman Sherrod Brown. Meanwhile, Democrats were able to pick up the congressional seat of the disgraced Rep. Bob Ney, with Zack Space's election. Meanwhile, Democrats also narrowed the Republican margin of control to 53-46 in the Ohio House, and 21-12 in the Ohio Senate. There were also several close calls at both the General Assembly and congressional level where a little bit better fundraising might have seen the Democratic candidate win.

Heading into 2008, we can look forward to a rebuilt Ohio Democratic Party under the tutelige of State Rep. Chris Redfern with Gov. Strickland and Sen. Brown able to assist candidate at all levels with fundraising. In addition to defending Rep. Space's seat, we can also build on the very close races in the 2nd and 15th congressional districts, as well as numerous State Rep. and State Senate seats where the Republican incumbent is term-limited out. And, we have a much better organized party to help a Democrat win Ohio's 20 electoral votes in the 2008 race for the White House.

My, how far we've come.

Poetic. Justice.

Wow. Congressman Ted Strickland took at full 60% of the vote in the 2006 Gubenatorial race, winning 72 of Ohio's 88 counties against Secretary of State "Ayahtollah" J. Kenneth Blackwell. This spanking was the most lopsided Governor's race in Ohio since 1994, when incumbent Gov. George Voinovich took 72% against the Democratic nominee, State Sen. Rob Burch. While this was quite a showing by Strickland about just what a Democrat is capable of doing in Ohio, I can't help but compare it to another candidate who got spanked Tuesday night.

That candidate being the Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate from Florida, Katherine Harris. The Democratic incumbent, Sen. Bill Nelson, also took 60% of the vote against Harris at the same time that the state was electing Republican Charlie Crist to serve as governor.

What do Harris and Blackwell have in common? As Secretaries of their respective states, Blackwell and Harris both made questionable judgement calls that basically threw their state's elections in 2000 and 2004 to our current President, George W. Bush.

For both of these candidates' opponents to receive 60% of the vote is the sweetest kind of poetic justice, as if the electorate was saying: We know what you did. We don't trust you to serve. And we won't see you profit from your wrongdoing.

So, Ken Blackwell and Katherine Harris, you sacrificed your political careers to see George W. Bush installed in the White House. After tuesday night's election resutls, do you think it was worth it?

Del.icio.us

While I will soon be posting my thoughts on election night, I wanted to post the link to my new del.icio.us site, which will allow all of you to read articles that I have "clipped" as being of interest. The URL is http://del.icio.us/BlueOhio

Hail Mary, Full of Grace, The Lord is with Thee...

Of all the Hail Mary's that we have seen the Republicans pull, Blackwell with his NAMBLA reference, DeWine talking about a twenty-year-old investigation into Sherrod Brown's Secretary of State office over an issue that caused no arrests and no charges to be filed, Bob "Sham"-ansky, the "Willie Horton II" ad against Dan Dodd in the 91st, we now have what may be the most desperate heave of all.

The OHRCC has paid for robo-calls of Republicans, pretending to be Democrats, urging Democrats to vote for Republican State House/State Senate candidates. The calls go something like "Hi, I'm so-and-so, a proud Democrat who is voting for Ted Strickland on Tuesday. But, I'll also be voting for "insert Republican State house/state senate candidate here."

Bob Bennett, it's time for you to resign. Your party has crossed the line from merely telling half-truths to out-and-out deception.

These Are The Stakes

I urge you to read Jonathan Alter's excellent column before casting your vote for Congress this year.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15550869/site/newsweek/

More CQ Rating Changes in Ohio

Can you hear the cresting blue wave? It's going to hit in less than three weeks. CQPolitics.com, the website of the highly respected political publication Congressional Quarterly, has changed its rating on a number of races in Ohio. The changes are summarized below:

Ohio Governor : Now rated Democrat Favored (from Leans Democratic)

Congressman Ted Strickland's election to Ohio's top post is now seen as highly likely by CQ's staff. A slew of recent independent polls shows Ted Strickland maintaining a double-digit lead, including the University of Cincinnati's Ohio Poll, which pegs Strickland to an 14 point lead. The Ohio Poll is the one outlier that had still shown Ken Blackwell within striking distance of Strickland, so with this information as well as the short time left until the election, CQ has made the ratings change. The "Democrat Favored" rating indicates that the race is still somewhat competitve, but the Democratic candidate is clearly in command.

Ohio Senate: Now rated Leans Democratic (from No Clear Favorite)

With indepedent polls from SurveyUSA, Qunnipiac University as well as the Ohio Poll showing Congressman Sherrod Brown putting further distance between himself and Republican incumbent Sen. Mike DeWine, CQ has changed its rating on Ohio's Senate race to Leans Democratic. This rating indicates that while the race is still highly competitive, the Democratic candidate does appear to have the advantage. This makes Sen. DeWine the third Republican senator to be considered an underdog for re-election this year. He joins Pennsylvania Republican Sen. Rick Santorum and Rhode Island Sen. Lincoln Chafee in that category.

Ohio 2: Now rated Leans Republican (from Republican Favored)

A bedrock Republican conservative district that gave President Bush 64% of the vote in 2004, the 2nd, based in the suburbs of Cincinnati, is the last place you would look for a highly competitive House race. However, the unpopularity of incumbent Rep. Jean Schmidt, plus the credible challenge by Democrat Victoria Wulsin, has caused CQ to place this race in its highly competitive Leans Republican category. A recent SurveyUSA poll done on behalf of WCPO-TV in Cincinnati placed Wulsin within 8 points of Schmidt (48% to 40%)

Ohio 12: Now rated Republican Favored (from Safe Republican)

The Columbus-based 12th is no party's stronghold: President Bush and Sen. John Kerry split the district's presidental vote 51-49 in 2004. However, three term Republican Rep. Pat Tiberi has coasted to re-election behind inexperienced challengers in the last two elections. However, he is now facing a credible challenge from Democratic former Rep. Bob Shamansky, who at age 79 is willing to dip into his consider personal wealth to get his former seat back (He was elected in 1980 but defeated in 1982). As a result, CQ's ratings change indicates this race is now at least somewhat competitive, although Tiberi is still considered a heavy favorite to be re-elected.

Ohio 15: Now rated No Clear Favorite (from Leans Republican)

Well folks, "The Race" is now even more so. The only member of the House Republican leadership to face a competitive re-election bid, Rep. Deborah Pryce is now running neck-and-neck with her Democratic challenger, Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy, in the Columbus-based 15th District. The 15th District split its Presidental vote 50-50 in 2004, and this race is very winnable for both candidates. Reflecting the extremely competitive nature of this race, CQ has changed its rating to No Clear Favorite from Leans Republican. Both candidates have drawn fundraising visits from top party leaders, and the NRCC and DCCC continue to spend heavily on this race. This one will likely go down to the wire.