Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Whoa! Obama Won OH-15 by 9, OH-12 by 7

Thanks to this article over at the Swing State Project, we finally have a breakdown of the 2008 Presidential vote by congressional district, and it reveals some surprising facts.

The most surprising, in my opinion? President Obama won the Ohio 15th, in which Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy eked out a victory that wasn't decided until at least a month after the election, by 9 points, 54-45. In the neighboring Ohio 12th, in which first-timer David Robinson had a respectable showing against entrenched incumbent GOPer Pat Tiberi, Obama won by 7 points, 53-46.

Here is the full list:

District Vote Split Winner
Ohio 1st (Driehaus) 55-44 Obama
Ohio 2nd (Schmidt) 40-59 McCain
Ohio 3rd (Turner) 47-51 McCain
Ohio 4th (Jordan) 38-60 McCain
Ohio 5th (Latta) 45-53 McCain
Ohio 6th (Wilson) 48-50 McCain
Ohio 7th (Austria) 45-54 McCain
Ohio 8th (Boehner) 38-60 McCain
Ohio 9th (Kaptur) 62-36 Obama
Ohio 10th (Kucinich) 59-39 Obama
Ohio 11th (Fudge) 85-14 Obama
Ohio 12th (Tiberi) 53-46 Obama
Ohio 13th (Sutton) 57-42 Obama
Ohio 14th (LaTourette) 49-49 TIE
Ohio 15th (Kilroy) 54-45 Obama
Ohio 16th (Boccieri) 48-50 McCain
Ohio 17th (Ryan) 62-36 Obama
Ohio 18th (Space) 45-52 McCain

So, what can we learn from this? There seems to be an awful lot of people in and around Columbus who voted for President Obama but still voted for a GOPer for Congress. We need to go out and find those people and get them to vote for Democrats up and down the ticket. If we do that, then Mary Jo should have no problem holding on to her seat, and can put into play some State Senate seats that the GOPers currently have locked down.

1 comment:

Mike said...

Mary Jo has an uphill climb in 2010 if she's not careful.

If you look at 2006 to 2008 she actually LOST vote share since all three of her opponents were to her right.

She's not quite down at the base of the hapless Mark Brown, but she slid half way back to that point.

She needs to take care of her base (her strength) and reach out to the middle which is her major weakness given her background.

The 12th district is a write off until we can get some positive redistricting going there. Siphon off GOP votes to the 7th and the 4th and make Franklin county the center of two Democratic districts.