Thanks to this article over at the Swing State Project, we finally have a breakdown of the 2008 Presidential vote by congressional district, and it reveals some surprising facts.
The most surprising, in my opinion? President Obama won the Ohio 15th, in which Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy eked out a victory that wasn't decided until at least a month after the election, by 9 points, 54-45. In the neighboring Ohio 12th, in which first-timer David Robinson had a respectable showing against entrenched incumbent GOPer Pat Tiberi, Obama won by 7 points, 53-46.
Here is the full list:
| District | Vote Split | Winner |
| Ohio 1st (Driehaus) | 55-44 | Obama |
| Ohio 2nd (Schmidt) | 40-59 | McCain |
| Ohio 3rd (Turner) | 47-51 | McCain |
| Ohio 4th (Jordan) | 38-60 | McCain |
| Ohio 5th (Latta) | 45-53 | McCain |
| Ohio 6th (Wilson) | 48-50 | McCain |
| Ohio 7th (Austria) | 45-54 | McCain |
| Ohio 8th (Boehner) | 38-60 | McCain |
| Ohio 9th (Kaptur) | 62-36 | Obama |
| Ohio 10th (Kucinich) | 59-39 | Obama |
| Ohio 11th (Fudge) | 85-14 | Obama |
| Ohio 12th (Tiberi) | 53-46 | Obama |
| Ohio 13th (Sutton) | 57-42 | Obama |
| Ohio 14th (LaTourette) | 49-49 | TIE |
| Ohio 15th (Kilroy) | 54-45 | Obama |
| Ohio 16th (Boccieri) | 48-50 | McCain |
| Ohio 17th (Ryan) | 62-36 | Obama |
| Ohio 18th (Space) | 45-52 | McCain |
So, what can we learn from this? There seems to be an awful lot of people in and around Columbus who voted for President Obama but still voted for a GOPer for Congress. We need to go out and find those people and get them to vote for Democrats up and down the ticket. If we do that, then Mary Jo should have no problem holding on to her seat, and can put into play some State Senate seats that the GOPers currently have locked down.
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1 comment:
Mary Jo has an uphill climb in 2010 if she's not careful.
If you look at 2006 to 2008 she actually LOST vote share since all three of her opponents were to her right.
She's not quite down at the base of the hapless Mark Brown, but she slid half way back to that point.
She needs to take care of her base (her strength) and reach out to the middle which is her major weakness given her background.
The 12th district is a write off until we can get some positive redistricting going there. Siphon off GOP votes to the 7th and the 4th and make Franklin county the center of two Democratic districts.
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