Obama's Approval Tumbles, D's Still Lead Portman For Senate Race

Quinnipiac University's latest poll results on the state of the political landscape here in Ohio were released this morning, and it wasn't pretty for President Obama.

Given a 62-31 approval rating just two months ago, President Obama now gets a 49-44 approval rating. What's remarkable about this to me is that both the drop in approval and rise in disapproval are exactly 13%, meaning there is no net increase or decrease in the number of Ohioans feeling ambivalent about their new President, a President who has not yet spent 6 months in the White House. My feeling is that Ohioans frustrations with the slow progress on the economic recovery are coming out in these numbers.

On the 2010 Senate front, Quinnipiac finds both Fisher and Brunner slightly leading the likely GOP candidate former Rep. Rob Portman. Fisher has a slight 3 point lead on Brunner in the Democratic primary, within the polls margin of error.

New Quinny Poll on 2010 U.S. Senate Race Tomorrow

Quinnipiac University will be out with a new poll tomorrow on Ohio's 2010 U.S. Senate race plus President Obama's approval rating in the Buckeye State. Stay tuned for details.

OH-Sen: Rob Portman Admits GOP Has No Ideas on Health Care

Honestly, I give him credit for coming right out and saying what we all knew. But only a little bit. ( H/T David @ BSB )

From National Journal:

Republicans have also taken some heat nationally for not focusing on health care in their campaigns in recent years, but Portman already has been speaking on the issue frequently.

“We have to have an alternative. … I will tell you, I don’t think there is a Republican alternative at this point,” he said. He said he reached that conclusion after talking to Senate leaders and lawmakers about the GOP’s position. “There isn’t one,” he said. “There’s a task force, and I applaud them for that.”

Actually, I take that back. A task force? That's a code word for keeping the status quo in place. And the status quo isn't acceptable anymore. 

Brunner: Under No Circumstances Will I Run for SOS

In a letter to the chairs of county Democratic parties today, Jennifer Brunner unequivocally states that she will not seek re-election to the SOS position:

I want to make it clear that under no circumstances will I consider seeking re-election to the Secretary of State's position, or any other statewide or federal office, other than the open U.S. Senate seat of retiring Senator George Voinovich. I am pleased with the work that you and I have accomplished in improving elections in Ohio and the operations of the Secretary of State's office in less than three years, including protecting each Ohioan's social security number from public access and ensuring trust in Ohio's elections.

Modern & Russo's Leger De Main Re: Brunner

Leger De Main is a French phrase that means sleight of hand, an attempt at diversion. Jennifer Brunner supporters Modern Esquire and Tim Russo are hard at work practicing Leger De Main right now in an attempt to distract attention from Brunner's poor 1st Quarter fund raising totals, and the pressure she is feeling from national Democrats to improve her fundraising or leave the race.

Two national bloggers, Chris Cilliza of the Washington Post blog The Fix , and Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com have written recently that Brunner's lackluster fundraising total in Q1 means that unless her Q2 results show marked improvement, she'll feel the heat from national Democrats to leave the race. Especially since GOP front runner Rob Portman has over $3 million in the bank and a cleared primary field.

I don't know about you, but I really can't see Jennifer Brunner saying no to Rahm Emanuel if he calls her and asks her to step aside. Thus all the heat is on Brunner to at least match Fisher's Q2 fundraising totals or leave the race. The DSCC knows that Ohio is a key pickup opportunity that can serve either as a firewall against GOP gains elsewhere, or as a key piece in the puzzle of 60 senate votes. A bloody Democratic primary where the GOP candidate has a cleared field and can raise funds and define himself at will is their worst nightmare. 

From outside the vitrol that Modern and Russo have for Fisher for whatever reason, it would appear that the candidate who raised $1 million and has 20 years experience is more viable than one who raised $200,000 and has no legislative experience whatsover. So the heat is on Brunner to improve her fundraising totals or clear the field for Fisher. 

So, pay no attention to Modern & Russo's Leger De Main.

The Fix Summary of Ohio Senate Race

From the Friday Line at The Fix:

6. Ohio (R): Fundraising totals for the first three months of 2009 were a telling sign of strength in this open seat race. Former Rep. Rob Portman (R) delivered on the high expectations for his candidacy with $1.7 million raised and another $1.4 million transferred from his House account. Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) also crested the $1 million raised plateau -- far outdistancing Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner (D) who brought in just $200,000. If Brunner can't find a way to stay more competitive with Fisher, she is likely to face significant pressure from state and national Democrats to abandon her candidacy. Either way, a Fisher-Portman race is the most likely one right now, and that has all the makings of a great one. (Previous ranking: 6)

Brunner Makes FiveThirtyEight's Least Impressive Fundraising Totals List

From Nate Silver at FiveThirthyEight.com, Brunner makes his list of least impressive fundraising totals, meanwhile, Rob Portman makes the list of most impressive.

Least Impressive Fundraising Totals, Challenger Division

3. Jennifer Brunner, D-Ohio ($207,236). Brunner's totals significantly lagged those of Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher, who brought in $1,035,673 last quarter. With Democrats having good reason to fear Rob Portman's organizational strength, Brunner will be under substantial pressure to improve her fundraising or Buckeye State Democrats may lose their appetite for a competitive primary.

Most Impressive Fundraising Totals, Challenger Division

3. Rob Portman, R-Ohio ($1,704,501). Portman was expected to be a strong fundraiser so this is not surprising, but he is increasingly looking like a mild frontrunner in the race to replace George Voinovich, even if polling has showed him slightly behind the Democratic opposition.

PD: 25% of Fisher Haul Is Earmarked for the General

According to the PD's Mark Naymik , roughly $225,000 of the $1 million that Lee Fisher raised in the 1st quarter for his Senate campaign is funds earmarked for the general election:

About $225,000 of the roughly $1 million he received by March 31 is designated for the general election. That's because Fisher's million-dollar tally includes money from "double max" donors, those who made the maximum contribution to Fisher's primary and general campaigns at the same time. Supporters can contribute up to $2,400 to each campaign, but contributions for the general election can't be spent in the primary. Fisher also reported $24,000 in loans. 

Fisher's list of "double max" contributors include Milton Maltz, founder and former chief executive officer of Malrite Communications; lawyer Stan Chesley, who has done work for Ohio for years; and numerous Northeast Ohio business leaders and well-to-do families.

Brunner Fundraising Numbers: Underwhelming, To Say the Least

I believe that Dave at Progress Ohio was the first to report on Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner's underwhelming first quarter fundraising numbers that were released today. Brunner raised about $200,000 in the first quarter 2009 for her Senate campaign, about one-fifth of Lee Fisher's $1 million haul, and about one-seventh of likely GOP challenger Rob Portman's $1.4 million that he actually raised instead of transferred from his congressional account.

There's lots of other stuff to blog about tonight, but let me just say that the Brunner supporters in the blogopshere have to be disappointed by this result. Fundraising is important no matter how Modern and Russo will try to spin this, and Brunner absolutely needs to make an all out push for 2Q money or this primary may be over before it begins.

Fisher, Brunner Hire Campaign Staffs

As the 2010 U.S. Senate campaign plunges headlong into the summer of 2009, it is becoming increasing apparent that neither Jennifer Brunner or Lee Fisher are going to back out of this primary. Brunner and Fisher have both hired extensive, experienced campaigners for this race. Fisher has announced he has raised over $1 million in the first quarter, meanwhile, Brunner has recruited Marilyn Brown to run for Secretary of State. Both of those facts indicate to me that they are both in this race for the long haul. I do not expect to see a "Valentine's Day Massacre" this time. Hope everyone is up for a long, nasty fight.

BSB: Fisher Raised Over $1 Million

Buckeye State Blog is reporting that tomorrow , Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher will announce he's raised over $1 million for his US Senate race, and that 85% of that total is from Ohio.

Friday Line: Ohio is "GOP's Biggest Success Story" Because of Dem Primary

From Chris Cilliza's Blog "The Fix" on Friday

6. Ohio (R): To date, the Ohio race may be Republicans' biggest success story this cycle. Former Rep. Rob Portman (R) got into the race early and managed to clear the primary field. Since then he has stayed below the radar, presumably to focus on fundraising in order to show a huge amount of money raised in his first quarter report. Democrats, meanwhile, seem headed to a primary between Lt. Gov.Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner -- among others -- that will deplete the eventual winner's resources and allow Portman to define himself in the absence of a Democratic opponent. Democratic strategists argue that the primary isn't a sure thing -- noting that a primary fight dissolved in 2006 in Ohio -- but we don't see either Fisher or Brunner blinking in the near future especially with polling that shows the primary to be a total jump ball. (Previous ranking: 4)

UFCW Endorses Brunner for Senate

Whoa! Ohio's largest private union, UFCW, endorses Jennifer Brunner for U.S. Senate instead of Lee Fisher. I had heard that Fisher wasn't the favorite of Ohio's unions, but I'm not sure why. Something that dates back to the 90s is all I heard.

In any case, congrats to the Brunner camp for the endorsement! And H/T Dave at Progress Ohio for the tip.

Brunner: Fisher Can't Win

As David has ably pointed out over at BSB, The Licking County Pro-Active Citizens' Blog has some interesting quotes attributed to Secretary of State, and 2010 U.S. Senate candidate, Jennifer Brunner. 

Some Democrats, including Governor Ted Strickland, have indicated they'd prefer that Brunner stand down so that Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher can be the Democratic nominee without a contested primary.

"Take one for the team?," Brunner responded.  "Even if the other guy can't win?  I don't think that makes sense."

And as for party leaders who worry that her Senate ambitions put in jeopardy Democratic control of the remapping of state legislative districts after 2010, Brunner also thinks such fears are unfounded.

She's already at work recruiting a strong woman candidate to replace her as Secretary of State if she moves on to the U.S. Senate, Brunner said.

"I have no doubt we'll hold on to that seat," she said.

Couple of interesting points here. One, I don't see a basis for Brunner to say that Fisher can't win the seat. The polls from Quinnipiac bear out that Fisher and Brunner are in equal position against Rob Portman at this time. If anything, Fisher polls slightly better. 

Two, I think Brunner owes it to Ohio Democrats everywhere to seek the best possible candidate for SOS, no matter their gender, since her candidacy does put at risk Democratic control of the apportionment board. Obviously, Brunner would have the advantage of incumbency if she were to run for SOS in 2010, and her replacement won't have that luxury in a race against Slick Jonny Husted.

Third, I understand things are heating up quickly, but I had hoped we could wait a little longer before lobbing pot shots. This primary has already caused a major dislocation in Ohio's progressive blogosphere, and we don't need it to spread to our party structure at a time when we are still trying to heal from the Clinton-Obama primary of a year ago (yes, it was only one year ago),

Still Time to Submit A Question Over at BSB

There is still time to submit a question to Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher over at BSB this afternoon.